Welcome to Homeseed’s Mortgage Market Update, where we dive into the latest trends, insights, and changes shaping the dynamic landscape of the housing and lending industries.
Mortgage Rate Trends & Forecasts
- Mortgage rates have been on a consistent downward trend the last two weeks due to weakening economic data from reports such as the BLS Jobs Report, CPI, and Retail Sales.
- With the weaker data, the financial markets are now expecting two rate cuts from the Fed this year.
- The next market moving data will likely be the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report at the end of the month, which is the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- The Consumer Price Index continues to be the biggest source of momentum for mortgage rates as it measures inflation.
- The April report released today showed overall inflation rose 0.3% for the month versus the expected 0.4%, while year-over-year inflation decreased from 3.4% to 3.5%.
- Much of the core rate, which excludes food and energy, is coming from motor vehicle insurance (+22.6% YoY) and shelter (+5.7% YoY).
New Home Construction
- Housing starts rebounded in April, rising 5.7% from March.
- Building permits, which represent future construction, declined.
- Completions did rise in April, but the numbers were a bit softer than expected and could limit much-needed supply down the road.
- RATES ON A DOWNWARD TREND – Mortgage rates have consistently moved lower the last two weeks after multiple reports showing weakness in the economy.
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/… - INFLATION EASES IN APRIL – Today’s CPI report showed inflation in line with expectations and the lowest 12-month core reading since April 2021.
https://www.cnbc.com/… - UNLOCKING MORE HOME EQUITY – Freddie Mac, one of the US’s government-sponsored enterprises, is proposing that it be allowed begin purchasing home equity loans which would help unlock equity for homeowners.
https://www.businessinsider.com/… - INVESTMENT FROM HUD – The US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) announced it has secured approval for $1.1 billion in funding to help with tribal housing and community development.
https://www.housingwire.com/…